Using species distribution models with climate change scenarios to aid ecological restoration decisionmaking for southern California shrublands

Type: 
Literature
Publication: 
Riordan, Erin C.; Montalvo, Arlee M.; Beyers, Jan L. 2018. Using species distribution models with climate change scenarios to aid ecological restoration decisionmaking for southern California shrublands. Res. Rep. PSW-RP-270. Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station. 130 p.
Year Published: 
2018
Organization: 
Pacific Southwest Research Station
Description: 

Sourcing appropriate plant material for restoration within the heterogeneous landscape of southern California is a nuanced task further complicated by climate change. We generated species distribution models (SDMs) that may be useful tools for incorporating climate change scenarios into ecological restoration decisionmaking for southern California scrub and shrubland habitats. We modeled regional patterns of suitable habitat under baseline (1951–1980) and midcentury (2040–2069) climate conditions for 44 focal plant taxa under five future climate scenarios. Projected changes in habitat suitability varied across taxa and climate scenarios. Future climate scenarios with the most extreme directional changes in precipitation (increase or decrease) resulted in the greatest projected loss of suitable habitat for most taxa.

Category: 
Alluvial scrub, chaparral, climate change, coastal sage scrub, ecological restoration, seed transfer, shrubland, southern California, species distri-bution modeling.